Barclays turns 'tactically cautious' on EU steel
16/07/2025 11:13
** Barclays takes a "tactically cautious" view on the European steel sector, citing risks from soft demand, high Chinese output, and a potential destocking cycle into H2 ** The broker notes equity valuations are near a five-year high relative to spot spreads for hot-rolled coil (HRC) steel, suggesting markets are "pricing in several positive catalysts already" ** The brokerage remains sceptical on the extent of EU trade measures, viewing recent safeguard reviews and anti-dumping duties as "slightly disappointing" for domestic producers ** Barclays downgrades ArcelorMittal MT.AS to "equal weight" from "overweight" citing a fuller valuation and tariff risks into H2 ** It also cuts Outokumpu OUT1V.HE to "underweight" from "equal weight" due to an increasingly difficult EU stainless environment, capex risk into 2026, and strategic question-marks over longer-term growth
| COMPANY | NEW RATING | OLD RATING | NEW PT | OLD PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acerinox ACX.MC | overweight | overweight | EUR 13.00 | EUR 12.00 |
| Aperam APAM.AS | underweight | underweight | EUR 25.00 | EUR 25.00 |
| ArcelorMittal | equal weight | overweight | EUR 27.00 | EUR 27.00 |
| Outokumpu | underweight | equal weight | EUR 3.00 | EUR 3.30 |
| SSAB SSABa.ST | equal weight | equal weight | SEK 60.00 | SEK 63.00 |
| thyssenkrupp TKAG.DE | underweight | underweight | EUR 7.30 | EUR 4.90 |
| voestalpine VOES.VI | overweight | overweight | EUR 29.00 | EUR 25.00 |
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